Photo:

Paul O’Neill’s Croft thoughts

By

Is it really Round Five of the season already?!!! Wowsers…

Right then – Croft. This place is the ‘same’ layout as Oulton and Knockhill as it’s a traction circuit and that’s why the top six will mostly consist of RWD cars as we go through the weekend.

It’s known as ‘tyre attrition central’ by engineers and drivers and that’s why anyone turning up at Croft with a BTCC car that’s driven by the rear wheels will look a bit like a Euromillions lottery winner turning up at Camelot (not the theme park) for a press conference (if you ticked the box.)

But there is a snag.

Dunlop has changed the soft tyre nomination for Croft and the upcoming Rockingham rounds to the Thruxton hard compound.

When you’re an RWD driver and if the weather is hot, you love it when you put the mandatory ‘soft’ joker tyre on, because you usually fly against your FWD competitors! In qualifying and in the medium tyre races, there will be no change for the Subaru and BMW drivers, but this hard tyre change has left a few drivers and teams wondering what the hell is going to happen when they bolt them on for the nominated races.

I’ve spoken to two top drivers in the championship, one in an FWD car and the other from an RWD manufacturer.

FWD man (they’re not his initials) showed he is a caring soul by telling me he’s worried about the drivers towards the back of the grid struggling to get heat in the hard rear tyres and bouncing off the wall through the chicane early on!

I tell you what, it isn’t a bad shout and if it’s cold it may be a struggle as those tyres have quite a stiff sidewall but I think its a good thing as they’ll have to drive around it!

RWD man on the other hand (who I thought would be seething as a little advantage may have gone) says this could actually work for him as he’d rather battle with understeer (cold front tyres) than bouncing and sliding around (oversteer) out the back on like the FWD cars will have to deal with.

One thing is for certain, these guys will be going in blind on the hard tyre as they only get to use them when they bolt them on for the race! Obviously they use them at Thruxton but this is a different kettle of fish. The easiest way to explain is that it’s like being a NASCAR driver and taking the same car to a ‘normal’ circuit.

These tyres will feel weird at Croft – and I can’t wait!

When I look at the success ballast this weekend I expect the weekend to go very well for the people who aren’t carrying it!

I honestly think the ground breaking Subaru performance at Oulton Park (as I predicted, haha) will continue, and I’m thinking we may be coming into a potential ‘Subaru wins twice in a weekend’ job here, as they have no weight, two of the best drivers, a good engine and an amazing chassis.

The other teams must be quaking in their boots because Colin Turkington and JP’s 48 and 46 points haul respectively from Oulton is the third and fourth best weekend of any driver behind Tordoff and Morgan.

By the time we leave Croft they will both be knocking on the door of the overall top ten and by the end of the season I reckon one of them will be inside the top four!!! It can happen guys! This is a nightmare for the title protagonists as they will have to go wheel to wheel with them and the Subaru drivers will have nothing to lose. Amazing!!

Qualifying. Throw in a Subaru front row lockout then the squabble for the top eight will consist of Tom Ingram, who had an epic points scoring weekend for him at Oulton Park – just what the doctor ordered for the Speedworks driver.

I really think he will lead the battle for the second row with maybe Jack Goff, who will be itching to get to Croft as he will not want to be behind his team-mates in the standings.

Ash Sutton, Gordon Shedden, Dan Lloyd and Josh Cook will all be trying to get in on the act too with the stand out men being Shedden and Lloyd as the Civic hauled weight around Croft well last year with Gordon P3 in qualifying carrying 66Kgs!

Lloyd again should be aiming for top four with a light Type R and the Yorkshireman will be aiming to impress on home turf. Tordoff had a stunning weekend here last year sticking it on pole and then coming home second, first and sixth, which fired him straight into the championship mix.

This time he leads the pack by a point by having a glorious weekend last time out. He’ll feel confident but he will have to nail qualifying with full ballast and hope he can stick it in the top eight to score a little in round one and then give it large the rest of the weekend. I really feel this is pivotal for Sam’s championship as he is now looked on as the ‘real deal’ but scoring big points starting in the pack is going to be the way to win the championship. This is a big qualifying session coming up for him!

If Matt Neal can repeat Oulton by starting off steady, shedding weight and then going for it he will be a happy man. He has qualified outstandingly with big weight this year but like Sam this weekend he needs all his experience to keep up this title charge as he is campaigning one of his best seasons ever.

What else? I think the Subarus are that strong that James Cole and Warren Scott could nip into the top ten in qualifying and have some cracking results this weekend.

Also a mention to Jake Hill as he’s been one of the championships unsung heroes and was rewarded with a dogged Oulton Park performance with the #ForeverForward award for overtaking a million cars with a £4.50 budget. An impeccable effort!

With so many competitive cars at the sharp end of the BTCC it’s easy to not see what goes on mid pack and I’ll guarantee if that boy gets a reverse grid pole, people will be glued to the TV. Let’s hope!

Overall I think it will be a Subaru show at the front with some lightweight cars giving them hell! Collard and Shedden will get back into the championship fight and people will get fired of left, right and centre.

So who do I think will do what?

Qualfying: Colin Turkington
Race 1: Colin Turkington
Race 2: Jason Plato
Race 3: An MG / Tom Ingram

DNF: Stewart Lines in all 3 races as he’s old. (Actually, I would love him to get a result)

One things for certain; there’ll be more action than at Oulton. You can overtake anywhere there, a real old school circuit! On the grass, on the pit wall and on the run off through the super fast Jim Clark Esses. So fasten ya seatbelts and watch Jason Plato try to get the upper hand on a Colin Turkington circuit!

P.S Louise Goodman isn’t there so me and the Buffet Slayer (Tim Harvey) will be looking after things (hmmm.)

Peace out

Paul