The ultimate half time season review

As the Swedish Touring Car Championship gears up for the final stretch of the season, the last four race weekends, the championship contenders have now emerged and it’s not quite what was expected when the season started. TouringCarTimes summarize the first half as STCC is four race weekends and eight races away of deciding the 2009 champion.

Volvo entered the season as huge favourites. So big favourites were they that most wondered, not if, but when they would secure this.

No wonder given how many kilometers of testing they did in Spain with Robert Dahlgren as the other teams were still waiting for the test season to start in Sweden. That combined with the speed Volvo showed in the final races of 2008 made Dahlgren and Rustad look unstoppable.

But despite a huge speed advantage that saw them start the season with a one-two at the first race in Mantorp they soon stopped themselves. Dahlgrens engine failure in the second race at Mantorp would be a sign of times to come. After that he’s had one engine failure after another and despite taking pole in every race but one he now lags behind in sixth place, practically out of the title fight.

Instead it was his Volvo team-mate that despite not having tested nearly as much as Dahlgren before the season managed to get Volvo back in the title-hunt. Often behind Dahlgren on speed, Rustad has managed to convert the speed into points.

Just two points behind the lead in second place, the Norwegian is now Volvos best chance to break the BMW-domination and take back the title to Gothenburg as Rustad himself chases his second Swedish title.

Reigning champion Richard Göransson also entered the season as an outside pre-season favourite. Reunited with WestCoast Racing after three years with rival BMW-team Flash Engineering, Göransson was expected to lead the BMW-charge against Volvo.

He duly did that at Mantorp, taking a very fighting victory and third place in the two races and duly leaving with the championship lead. But after that he was put on the back foot thanks to a penalty at Karlskoga and a disaster weekend at Gotheburg.

Lately Göransson has turned it around again at the last two meetings and with his second win of the season at the last race he is back in the fight again, and the three-time champion should never be underestimated. He’s been fighting for the title every season since 2004 and won three times out of six.

Team mate Robin Rudholm has sort of emerged this season after three solid seasons at WestCoast Racing. With Göransson as a new team mate Rudholm seemed to be fired up and caused some raised eyebrows when he outqualified Göransson at the first round.

But he had a nightmare start when technical problems prevented him from taking any points at the first two races. But after that he racked up two victories at Gelleråsen and two second places at Knutstorp where he made the most of a light car. That has put him fourth in the standings and makes him a joker for this year’s title.

There is however cause for some concern, Rudholm has not had any good results when he’s had a car heavy with success ballast. He has to change that if he is to challenge the top three in the last eight races.

Another driver in with a shot at the title is the third BMW-driver – Jan “Flash” Nilsson. He seems to have finally been breaking his duck when it comes to rear-wheel drive in STCC and took his first win in a BMW this year. That and a few podiums put “Flash” in the title fight but two bad weekends at the west coast races where he due to crashes just took three points put him back down again. With a great start to the second half he could be back again though but he faces a tough challenge to hold Dahlgren in a much faster car behind him.

That leaves just one driver in the top six we haven’t mentioned and it happens to be championship leader Thed Björk. And it’s easy to forget him because he’s been somewhat lurking around this season. Despite being the only driver in the top six yet to win a race this year, Björk has managed to put together at consistent run of podium places putting him in the championship lead.

He’s been on the podium in six out of the ten races even though he’s had one of the heaviest car almost every round. That consistency must be an issue of concern for the others who are yet to show that same consistent performance weekend in and weekend out.

How it all will play out

We now have realistically three drivers with a couple of jokers involved in the title fight, and that makes the final part of the season interesting to watch. It might be a cliché but predictions have not been harder to make.

Thed Björk is the consistent performer this year but is yet to win a race and it’s hard to imagine him taking the title without a victory this year. His lead has also been caught up by both Rustad and Göransson recently. Having said all that though, Björk currently holds an average finishing position of 3,0 this season which is better than what the last two year’s champions had.

Tommy Rustad is currently Björks main challenger, just two points behind and with a fast car. He has a car capable of victories at every remaining race. His two issues of concern are how Volvo will handle the rest of the season, and their engine issues.

Dahlgren is very much Volvos lead driver, but with him practically out of the chase Volvo will have to face the decision on shifting the focus over to Rustad if they are to win this year. Engines are also a cause for concern, Volvo is yet to figure out the exact cause for the failures. An engine failure at this stage of the season would be a disaster.

In a title fight Richard Göransson should never be underestimated. He’s now managed to get some momentum back again after the last two rounds and is catching up with the leaders. He is probably the fastest driver in the field and despite some up’s and down’s just ten points behind.

The remaining tracks are strong tracks both for him and the team and should suit them well. A chance of behind historic with a fourth STCC-title is probably all the motivation he needs to increase the pace.

The title prospects of Robin Rudholm, Jan “Flash” Nilsson and Robert Dahlgren is very dependant on how they perform this weekend. All three of them need to catch up to the top three this weekend if they are to be reckoned in the title fight. Wins and some bad luck for the other are essential, and if any of them can make a serious dent into Björks lead we have a four-way fight for the title.

This is a title fight we should expect to run until the end of the season.