Can we draw anything from Media Day?

There is now less than a week until the field descends on Brands Hatch for the opening rounds of the 2016 Dunlop MSA British Touring Car Championship; a weekend where the talking will stop and we’ll get the first indication of who will be the teams to beat this season.

Of course, we’ve already had the opportunity to see the majority of the field in action at Donington Park during the annual Media Day, although it’s questionable as to how reliable those four hours of running will be prove to be during the year ahead.

Whilst there is no doubt that Matt Neal will be involved in the title fight, and that rookie Ashley Sutton and FWD convert Rob Austin are capable of challenging for wins, it’s a safe bet that Gordon Shedden and Andrew Jordan – to name just two – will be much closer to the front that they were in the East Midlands.

Then there are the Subaru Levorgs which, even though they were still to be completed on the day, are expected to be in the mix from the outset in the hands of Jason Plato and Colin Turkington.

But what – if anything – can we take from Media Day as the field heads for Kent this weekend?

Is Neal now the man to beat in terms of the race for the title, or should the fact he was quickest on Media Day almost rule him out of the championship battle before it even starts?

A look at the stats from across the years provides two differing trains of thought.

If you look at recent history in the series, only once in the last five seasons has the man who topped the times on Media Day gone on to win the title, with Andrew Jordan leading the way in 2013 before ending the year on top of the standings. Go back a bit further however, and leading the way on Media Day seemed to be the done thing for the man who would eventually be crowned champion.

Across the 15 seasons of competition since the end of Super Touring, eight drivers have gone on to win the title having topped the times on Media Day, with seven drivers failing in their title challenge having been the early pacesetter.

You could therefore argue that history suggests Neal has a good chance of the title (backed up by his first two titles coming after he’d topped Media Day testing) but then again, last season serves as the prime example of why the times set during the season launch can be taken with a pinch of salt.

Twelve months ago, Aiden Moffat, Hunter Abbott, Warren Scott and Martin Depper came away from Donington Park having posted top ten times in the Media Day test, but none of the quartet would make it into the top 15 in the end of season standings; with only Moffat showing anything like front-running pace thanks to a fifth place finish at Donington and a podium at Knockhill.

In fact, if you combined their scores across the season, it still wouldn’t have been good enough for a top-ten championship finish.

The reality is that Media Day should be taken with a huge pinch of salt, largely because some teams are very careful not to show their hand, whilst others take the opportunity to make a bid for some early season headlines before the natural order is established.

Only a fool would want to place money on the title race based on the times set at Donington Park last year, but if you do fancy a flutter, here’s how Media Day impacted the season as a whole in years gone by…

2001:
A sign of things to come during the season as Yvan Muller and Jason Plato emerge as the quickest drivers during testing at Brands Hatch ahead of the first year of the BTC era. Whilst Muller is quickest by just 0.078secs around the short Indy circuit, it is Plato who emerges as champion after a heated title battle between the Vauxhall pair.

2002:
Little surprise to see Vauxhall again leading the way at Brands Hatch as the season is launched, with James Thompson this time being the man to beat ahead of Yvan Muller. When the season draws to a close at Donington, it is Thompson who beats Muller to the title by 20 points.

2003:
The Vauxhalls are more subdued during the 2003 season launch, with the MG of Warren Hughes instead being quickest ahead of Matt Neal’s Honda Civic. When the season ends however, it is Yvan Muller – fifth on Media Day – who emerges as the champion with Hughes’ MG down in seventh.

2004:
Media Day moves to Donington Park for 2004 and it is James Thompson who leads the way for Vauxhall ahead of team-mate Yvan Muller. The pair battle for honours all season before Thompson takes the title by a single point.

2005:
Only nine cars set times during the 2005 launch after a number of teams leave during the winter and it’s the Honda Integra of Matt Neal that sets the pace – as it will all season as he lifts his first title for Team Dynamics.

2006:
Back to Brands Hatch for 2006 and Matt Neal is again quickest in his Honda Integra ahead of Tom Chilton’s Astra Sport Hatch. Neal once again ends the year as champion.

2007:
Rockingham hosts the 2007 Media Day and with the new Honda Civic not ready to test, Fabrizio Giovanardi takes full advantage to lead the way for Vauxhall with the new Vectra – just ahead of Mike Jordan’s Integra. Giovanardi edges out SEAT’s Jason Plato to take the title by just three points.

2008:
The BMW of Mat Jackson takes the early season headlines as he goes fastest at Rockingham ahead of the similar car of Colin Turkington. However, Jackson has to settle for second in the championship behind Fabrizio Giovanardi – who is third fastest during the season launch.

2009:
Colin Turkington tops the times at Rockingham for Team RAC ahead of Fabrizio Giovanardi and the Northern Irishman emerges from a classic season finale later in the year with a maiden title to his name.

2010:
Although he doesn’t run during the morning session, Jason Plato is quickest in the afternoon at Brands Hatch to top the times at Brands Hatch and then goes on to win the title for Chevrolet later in the year.

2011:
Silverstone hosts the 2011 Media Day and Andrew Jordan beats James Nash to the top spot on the times. Third fastest Matt Neal goes on to win the title, with Jordan down in sixth and Nash just one spot ahead of him in fifth, but also wins the independent drivers’ title.

2012:
Perhaps one of the biggest Media Day shocks sees Dave Newsham go quickest for the unfancied ES Racing outfit ahead of Honda’s Gordon Shedden. Whilst Newsham goes on to take pole for the season opener and wins twice during the season, he finishes only ninth in the standings as Shedden lifts the title.

2013:
Back at Donington Park, Andrew Jordan edges out Jason Plato – just – to top the times on Media Day. The independent Honda driver keeps the factory cars at bay when the real battle begins as he lifts the title for Pirtek Racing.

2014:
Andrew Jordan starts his title defence his style, beating Honda’s Gordon Shedden by just 0.001secs to top the times on Media Day. Colin Turkington is eighth fastest in his BMW but goes on to lift the title.

2015:
Team BMR shows it means business with its new-look driver line-up and Jason Plato heads Colin Turkington on the times in a VW 1-2. However, Gordon Shedden – only 18th on the day and 1.5secs off the pace – lifts his second title when the season ends.